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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
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| Friday, August 3rd Employment 8:30, ISM Non-Mfg. 10:00am ET Today Burr Jennings will be on vacation next week. The DATA chat room and office will be open daily. DATA Morning Call will resume on Monday, August 13th. *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U7 (S&P500), ZN U7 (10 Year Note) and QM U7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Strength at the open led to a mostly choppy day until the last hour whereupon a rally through the high of the day and a close at the high solidified a new move up for the S&P. Today we have the employment report at 8:30am ET which will likely set the tone for the day. Today's pivot has loose confluence with the upper .382 of the last move down and is a good line in the sand to buy against with 1483.00 as a minimum profit target and 1495.25 as an ultimate profit target. Should employment disappoint and yesterdays low of 1466.00 is broken the short side is favored with the low of the week at 1445.00 as an ultimate profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes continued selling yesterday as the S&P maintained bullish levels yet managed to close unchanged at the end of the day. Today's employment report will likely have a significant impact on both Notes and the S&P. A strong move in either direction in the S&P will likely have the opposite effect in Notes. We have confluence at the lower .382 and the pivot as highlighted above to trade against today with 107 24.5/32 as a minimum profit target for the bulls and 106 30/32 as a minimum profit target for the bears. Momentum is currently negative on the daily bars favoring short sellers but that can change quickly once the employment report is released at 8:30am ET.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil sold 1 tick below Wednesdays low yesterday before rebounding 50% of the way back to the high of the week. Momentum is negative on the daily bars but the bull is far from dead in Oil. In the pre-market yesterday Oil sold off the $3 we were looking for and is likely to make a run for the high of the week today. The pivot is just below yesterdays close and just above today's lower .214 and will likely be a good line in the sand to trade against. Look for buying to resume and a run back to the high of the week of 78.775 should support exist at or above 76.80 Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings ______________________________________________________________________ Thursday, August 2nd Jobless 8:30, Factory Orders 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U7 (S&P500), ZN U7 (10 Year Note) and QM U7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Weakness at the open led to new lows on the week which was ultimately bought at the end of the day to close well above yesterdays close. Today we will look for yesterdays strength to follow through as long as trading above the loose confluence of the lower .382 and the pivot as highlighted above. Look for an advance above the high of the week at 1495.25. We have Employment at 8:30am ET tomorrow and it is likely that traders will want to position themselves long in front of the announcement especially this afternoon. If yesterdays high is not broken and resistance exists at or below confluence then the short side will still be favored with yesterdays low of 1445.00 as a minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes gapped up in the face of a weak S&P and faded most of the day as equities attempted to rebound. After Notes closed the S&P rallied smartly and Notes were sold hard in the after market. Today we should expect Notes to continue selling in the face of a S&P rally as long as trading below the confluence of the upper .382, yesterdays close and the pivot with 106 30/32 as a minimum profit target and 106 18/32 as an ultimate profit target. Above confluence and all bets off the short side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil rallied to well above the high of the week off the 10:30am ET inventory announcement only to be sold hard to well below Tuesdays low creating an outside day. Today we will look for selling to continue. It is still a bull market in Oil but a minimum $3 sell-off from yesterdays high is needed to bring the bulls back out in force. Look for the short side to be favored today as long as trading with resistance below the confluence of the lower .382 and the pivot with 76.10 as a minimum profit target and 74.60 as an ultimate target. Look for this weakness to ultimately be bought as we are in a bull market. Above confluence and all bets off the short side. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings ______________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, August 1st ADP Employment 8:15, ISM Mfg and Pend Home Sales 10:00, Oil Invty 10:30am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U7 (S&P500), ZN U7 (10 Year Note) and QM U7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap up at the open signaled a short opportunity yesterday which led to posting an outside day, breaking the low of last week and testing the 200 day simple moving average as suggested in DATA Morning Call. The cash S&P ($SPX) still has 5 points to go to hit the 200DSMA and that will likely occur today which is the equivalent of 1454.00 in the futures. We should see buying interest at or above this level once it is hit and if not, step aside and let sellers have their way. A gap down at the open that is below yesterdays low of 1456.25 and the buy side will be favored only if trading above the open with a gap fill and positive momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target. Strength at the open will likely be sold and again we can use the open as our line in the sand to short sell against with a break of 1456.25 as a minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A gap up in the S&P produced a gap down in Notes that recovered nicely as the S&P failed to maintain levels above the open. Today it is likely that yesterdays strength will continue to follow through as long as the S&P is still under pressure. Refer to the analysis above to be aware of the bias that exists today in the S&P. There is an inevitable rebound that should occur in the s&P and yesterdays open confirms that Notes will get spanked and sell hard when this occurs. Today we have confluence at the lower .382 and the pivot above which the buy side should be favored and below which all bets off the buy side. Last weeks high of 107 27/32 is the minimum profit target fur buyers and should the S&P come roaring back in favor of the bulls expect a break of 106 30/32 and ultimately 106 19/32.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A small gap up at the open suggested the short side was favored yesterday but Oil had other plans as a rally took prices to new 2007 highs and closed well above the high of the Fib Grid. With $5.40 on the Fib Grid low to high it is time for a pullback in Oil. If looking to buy it is once again time to be patient and let the inevitable pullback on the daily bars occur before once again committing to the buy side. A gap up at the open that is above 78.275 and the short side will be favored as long as trading below the open with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target. Confluence of S1 and Mondays high may offer a good line in the sand to trade against today. Oil Inventory at 10:30am ET today will likely have a significant impact on the market. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings ______________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, July 31st ECI and Personal Income 8:30, Redbook 8:55, NAPM Chicago 9:45, Construction Spending and Consumer Confidence 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U7 (S&P500), ZN U7 (10 Year Note) and QM U7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Strength at the open led to a rally that easily broke above the lower .214 before closing well off the high of the day posting an inside day. We have a slew of economic announcements today pre-market and at 10am ET to consider. The current selling is incomplete with another 5 to 10 points downside potential that still exists as suggested in yesterdays DATA Morning Call. Strength today will likely be sold in to and an outside day is quite possible. A gap up at the open and the short side will be favored as long as trading below the open, above which all bets off the short side. Yesterday the S&P futures did not break last weeks low, but due to the 7 point discount in the futures to the cash $SPX the cash did break last weeks low before rallying suggesting we will get positive momentum on the daily bars today. Yesterdays high of 1484.75 may also be an excellent line in the sand to short sell against should the S&P rally above and then fail below. The 200 day simple moving average, currently 6 points below yesterdays low, continues to be elusive as was the case back in March. That said, tomorrow is August and I will be quite surprised if the S&P does not hit and/or exceed the 200DSMA in the near future. On the rebound side, we have 1495.75, 1498.50 and 1511.00 as targets for the bulls
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes opened strong and faded the open the entire day breaking below Fridays low by 1 tick. Today the short side is favored as long as trading with resistance below the confluence of the lower .214 and the pivot as highlighted above with 106 19/32 as a minimum profit target. Continued buying in the S&P will likely see the bulls retreat in Notes. Should the S&P fall out of bed ignore the short side in Notes if trading above confluence.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil rallied a dime above last weeks high only to run out of gas and retreat to the upper .214. The Bull is still alive in Oil and as long as trading above the confluence of the pivot and yesterdays close the buy side is favored today with yesterdays high of 77.325 as a minimum profit target above which it is likely to be a struggle to go much higher. Below the upper .214 of 76.375 and certainly below yesterdays low of 76.05 and the short side will be favored with 74.60 as a minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings ______________________________________________________________________
Monday, July 30th No Significant Announcements Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U7 (S&P500), ZN U7 (10 Year Note) and QM U7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A flat open led to a bump up above confluence on Friday only to come crashing down easily eclipsing our minimum profit target of Thursdays low. An early afternoon rally failed just below the open and again sellers put the whip to the S&P dropping 30 points in 60 minutes to easily surpass our 1st ultimate profit target and close at the low of the day with a 7 point discount to the cash close. Wow! Thought that was amazing? Today and tomorrow may be just as volatile so get ready! There is no denying the new beginnings of a bear market in equities and the current price action has simply cascaded since posting negative momentum on the weekly and monthly bars. That said the S&P is extremely oversold at Fridays close and due for a strong bounce which will likely occur today or tomorrow after breaking 1457.25 which is last weeks low. Expect at least a .214 retracement on the Fib grid worth 23 points and almost as likely a .382 bounce worth 41 points from last weeks low. The S&P is shooting for the 200 day simple moving average which in the cash $SPX is 1448.25 which equates to approximately 1454.00 in the September S&P emini contract. The next 2 days we will be focused exclusively on the buy side with these two lines in the sand to trade against. Last weeks low of 1457.25 and the 200 day moving average of 1454.00 are so close that the risk reward ratio to the short side is now very poor and the risk to reward ratio to the buy side is now potentially very good. Below 1454.00 and we will not be pursuing the buy side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Continued weakness in equities saw Notes rally smartly above Thursdays high only to realize they had no business being so high and therefore retreated to below the previous close. Today Notes may get another bump up if the S&P continues to come unglued but at this point, as suggested on Friday, further upside above Fridays high will likely be a struggle. Be on the lookout today or tomorrow for the inevitable relief rally in the S&P which will likely have the opposite effect in Notes occur. To be considered bullish, Notes must be trading with support above the upper .214 of 107 7/32 with 107 27/32 as an ultimate profit target. Trading below 107 7/32 and all bets off the buy side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil opened strong and rallied to the close posting an impressive $2 up at the end of the day, yet still an inside day. Today the buy side is likely favored if trading above the pivot with support. Trading with resistance below the lower .214 and the short side is likely favored. A significant gap up at the open similar to last Thursday and the short side will be favored as long as trading below the open with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings ______________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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