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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
* Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page!
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Friday, May 11th PPI and Retail Sales 8:30, Business Inventories 10:00 ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap down at the open was ultimately sold Thursday morning to trade nearly 20 points lower from Wednesdays close. Today we once again have pre-market economic announcements that will likely dictate price action for the balance of the day. Strength at the open that maintains resistance below 1504.75 to 1505.75 will likely be sold to break well below yesterdays low of 1496. A significant gap down at the open that is below yesterdays low is a buy opportunity as long as trading above the open. Look for a gap fill and positive momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target on the buy side should this occur.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes broke below Wednesdays low yesterday and then rallied to close just off the high of the day suggesting further strength today. With negative momentum on the daily bars, Notes are a short today only if trading with resistance below the confluence of the lower .382 and the pivot as highlighted above with yesterdays low of 107 28/32 as a minimum profit target and 107 18/32 as an ultimate target. Pre-market economic announcements will likely dictate price action for the balance of the day.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil gapped up at the open and broke above Wednesdays high posting positive momentum on the daily bars before ultimately filling the gap in the afternoon and closing positive. In an ugly way Oil is trying to mount a rally and is a buy today as long as trading with support above the triple confluence of the upper .382, the pivot and yesterdays close with 62.575 as a minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Thursday, May 10th Import/Export and Int. Trade 8:30, 30-Year Bond Auction 1pmET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Weakness at the open was bought in classic pre-FOMC announcement style yesterday morning and with no change in interest rates and relatively benign comments the S&P logically ran the stops below and above the day before closing inside of the Fib Grid high. Today and tomorrow we have important pre-market economic announcements that will help to define directional bias before the open. With positive momentum back on the daily bars and high relative strength on the Fib Grid the S&P is a buy as long as trading above the confluence of the upper .382 and the pivot as highlighted above with yesterdays high of 1519.00 as a minimum profit target. That said, when trading at new highs FOMC day price action tends to get faded to at least the 2pm level of FOMC day if not through the low of FOMC day. A gap up at the open that is above yesterdays high and I will be working the short side aggressively with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: As expected, Notes fell out of bed yesterday off the FOMC announcement and are likely to continue to do the same today as it becomes clear that any cut in interest rates is well off in to the future. We have a powerful combination of confluence today at the lower .214 and the Pivot to short against with 107 18/32 as an ultimate profit target. Above 108 2/32 and all bets off the short side in Notes.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil fell out of bed off Wednesdays Oil Inventory report breaking the low of the week before rallying back to close above the lower .382 suggesting traders are finding value below $61 and ar willing to once again accumulate weakness. With negative momentum on the daily bars Oil is only a short if it can maintain weak relative strength by trading with resistance below today's loose confluence of the lower .382 and the pivot as highlighted above with yesterdays low of 60.70 as a minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Wednesday, May 9th Oil Inventory 10:30, FOMC 2:15pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap down at the open led to a break of last Fridays low only to be bought back up in the afternoon with the Dow leading to yet another new all-time high. Today we have the FOMC announcement at 2:15pm ET and although it is highly unlikely there will be any change in interest rates, traders will be combing through every word of commentary for concerns of inflation. Look for yesterdays strength to continue this morning with a break above yesterdays high of 1513.75 and the high of the week at 1516.75 before the announcement. We have confluence at the lower .382, the pivot and yesterdays afternoon swing low as our line in the sand to buy against below which all bets off the buy side. The net result of the FOMC announcement is a flip of the coin, but lately this market has found strength in both good and bad news.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A gap up in Notes at the open was faded in the afternoon off the 10-Year auction closing poorly on the day. With FOMC today it is difficult to suggest an appropriate bet in Notes other than yesterdays gap up should continue to fade today posting negative momentum on the daily bars. We have loose confluence between the pivot and yesterdays close to trade against. With the Dow at all-time highs and energy still tight, it seems unlikely that treasury bull's will get anything to cheer about from the Fed this afternoon, but given last Fridays reaction to the Employment Report you cannot discount the probability of a rally to heavily.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil found support at the pivot on Tuesday and rallied to well above Mondays high giving us a new Fib Grid today for the first time this month. Today look for yesterdays strength to follow through but expect a struggle around $63 as trend is currently down and Oil and it is reasonable to assume that strength will ultimately be sold in to back to Mondays low of 60.85 Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Tuesday, May 8th Wholesale Trade 10:00, 10-Year Note Auction 1:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Weakness at the open was immediately bought to 3 ticks above last weeks high before retreating in to a 2 point range producing the tightest day I can remember in the last 10 years. Bizarre given the over-bought levels and the current volatility. Today the short side is favored as long as trading below the confluence of the pivot and yesterdays close with 1507.00 as a minimum profit target and the Fib low at 1482.25 as an ultimate target. That said, today is the day before the FOMC announcement which typically offers a rally during the afternoon that extends in to the following morning. That said, with near 35 points on the Fib grid it is reasonable to assume any good news or even a substantial rally is already priced in to the S&P and that probability dictates a pullback rather than a rally. Simply use a line in the sand such as last weeks high of 1516.00 which we used yesterday to short against. Today's line in the sand starts with confluence between 1514.25 and 1514.75, above which all bets off the short side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes received a bump up above Fridays high and a new Fib Grid yesterday as traders look for any sign of a reduction in interest rates coming from the Fed at Wednesdays FOMC meeting. With the Dow at all-time highs and energy costs still strong this is unlikely and the current strength will likely be sold. That unfortunately is merely an opinion and if we are to follow what Notes are currently suggesting, the buy side is favored today as long as trading above the confluence of today's pivot and yesterdays close with 108 15/32 as a minimum profit target. Trading below yesterdays low of 108 4/32 and the short side will be favored as long as resistance remains below confluence with 107 18/32 as my profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil gapped down below last weeks low at the open yesterday suggesting a buy opportunity that initially faded to lower low's before recovering in the afternoon suggesting a rally for today. Look to work only the buy side today as long as trading with support above the loose confluence of the pivot and yesterdays close. Keep in mind this anticipated strength will likely be sold in to as Oil is currently trending down in the major time frames. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Monday, May 7th No Significant Economic Announcements Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap up at the open suggested the short side was favored on Friday and after a brief rally sellers took the S&P back to Thursdays close whereupon buyers once again stepped in to close futures with 3 points of premium over the cash market. Fridays close suggests a continuance of strength today but expect a struggle much above 1416 with negative momentum due on the daily bars in the near future. A gap up at the open and I will focus only on the short side with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as my minimum profit target
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes slammed through the low of the week only to rebound smartly all in the same 30 minute bar off the 8:30am ET Employment Report. Today we are left with a mixed message as Notes have high relative strength but negative momentum. With FOMC on Wednesday of this week, optimism may keep Notes at this high relative strength level, but nothing on the equity side suggests it should stick. Notes need some data that will knock equities off their lofty perch and so far there is none in sight.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil continued to fall out of bed on Friday and with 5 points on the Fib Grid it is likely that wee see some bottom fishing in Oil this week if not today. Should last weeks low of 61.575 break and then offer support above the low Oil is a buy. A gap down at the open that is below 61.575 and Oil is also a buy with a gap fill and positive momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
_____________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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