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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
* Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page!
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Friday, May 4th Employment Report 8:30am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap up at the open initially offered a short opportunity on Thursday but was defeated by strength that used the open as support for the balance of the day closing near a new 52 week high. Today we have the Employment Report at 8:30am ET which should dictate price action in both equities and treasuries. The ADP report on Wednesday suggests a soft number that could hurt equities and bolster treasuries. Both Notes and S&P's have bet just the opposite in front of today's numbers. A gap up at the open that is above yesterdays high and I will be working nothing but the short side with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target. I am not interested in the buy side at these levels. Be in the DATA chat room for the latest market analysis.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Initial strength was faded to a new low on the week as Notes posted an outside day after an inside day. Today we have the Employment Report at 8:30am ET which should dictate price action in both equities and treasuries. The ADP report on Wednesday suggests a soft number that could hurt equities and bolster treasuries. Both Notes and S&P's have bet just the opposite in front of today's numbers. A strong employment number and Notes will likely get crushed breaking 107 25/32 and ultimately 107 5/32. A weak number and a rebound to at least test if not break the high of the week is likely. Unfortunately the majority of this price action will likely occur within a moment or two of the announcement itself.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil continued to fade yesterday but as can be seen in the chart above, breaks below Wednesdays low were bought as Oil traders recognize an oversold condition. Although the short side is still favored today given negative momentum on the daily bars and low relative strength, yesterday was the 4th negative close and this is not a time to be initiating new shorts but a time to take profit in existing positions. Today we have confluence at the Pivot and yesterdays close which may actually turn out to be a good line in the sand to be buying against should Oil break above yesterdays high of 63.550. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Thursday, May 3rd Jobless and Productivity & Costs 8:30, ISM Non-Manufacturing 10:0am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Support at Tuesdays close led to a new high on the week and a new 52 week high by 1 tick yesterday. The upper .214 offered support yesterday afternoon and given that is 2 ticks from today's Pivot, if that continues today look for a new 52 week high in the S&P. The Dow continues to be the primary driver as it broke out to a new all-time high yesterday while the Nasdaq lagged. Should the Naz break above last weeks high the S&P should be trading well above 1505. A gap up at the open that is above yesterdays high and I will be working nothing but the short side with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as my minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes posted a tight range inside day yesterday which leaves us with the same trading plan today. With confluence at yesterdays close and today's Pivot as well as the upper .382 Notes appear poised for selling as long as trading with resistance below this level with 107 25/32 as a minimum profit target. Strength in the S&P will likely signal weakness for Notes as well.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil continued to sell yesterday hitting my ultimate profit target to the tick before bouncing back to Tuesdays low. Momentum and relative strength continue to suggest lower prices in Oil today but after 3 days of selling this may become a struggle. Oil has loose confluence at the lower .214 and the Pivot as well as the close. Use this as a line in the sand to trade against today as many traders and methodologies will be sharing these numbers. A gap down at the open that is below yesterdays low and the buy side will be favored as long as trading above the open with a gap fill and positive momentum on the daily bars a s a minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Wednesday, May 2nd ADP 8:15, Factory Orders 10:00, Oil Inventory 10:30am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Strength at the open was sold to a new low on the week yesterday only to be bought in the afternoon to close at the high of the day suggesting further strength today. Today it is reasonable to assume that strength will follow through and capitulate negative momentum on the daily bars to positive and if so the S&P is likely to trade through the high of the week. The buy side will be favored as long as trading with support above the Pivot of 1489.25 with 1504.50 as a minimum profit target. The Dow pulled in over 100 points from the high of the week and the S&P more than 20 which as suggested in Mondays DATA Morning Call attracted buyers. The Dow still has another 200 points to pull back from yesterdays low to fill the 2nd high probability gap that still exists. This would potentially put the S&P at approximately 1460 or so. Keep in mind that break outs to new highs and gaps up above the weekly high are still short opportunities and that in the big picture we may still see a more substantial pullback than yesterday. Be patient and let the market tell you when that opportunity exists as yesterdays price action now suggests a continuation of buying - not selling. Short extreme strength and buy extreme weakness.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Strength at the open was sold in to after 10am ET economic announcements yet recovered respectably in the afternoon. With confluence at yesterdays close and today's Pivot as well as the upper .382 Notes appear poised for selling as long as trading with resistance below this level with 107 25/32 as a minimum profit target. Strength in the S&P will likely signal weakness for Notes as well.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Weakness at the open held resistance at confluence yesterday easily breaking last Fridays low capitulating momentum to negative suggesting lower prices today. As suggested previously, Oil has been acting rather "bi-polar" and is now potentially due to trend. Today the lower .214 and Fridays low offer confluence that should be sold short against. It is possible that a retracement to the Pivot and even yesterdays lower .214 of 65.125 is possible above which all bets off the short side. Look for a break of 64.10 and ultimately 63.050 as an ultimate profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Tuesday, May 1st ISM Manufacturing Index and Pending Home Sales 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A flat open led to a test of last weeks high which failed in the afternoon trading 16 points off the weekly high and closing at the low of the day. In a sustainable bull market and in the month of April this quality of pullback has been bought. Today, strength at the open should be sold as long as resistance is maintained at or below the loose confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above with a minimum profit target of 1480.25 which given the 2nd gap up in the Dow has yet to fill is a realistic target. Yesterdays low is identical to last Wednesday which was a gap fill to the tick before rallying to new highs. Be aware we had buyers here before and may have buyers here again. A break of yesterdays low that immediately reverses and finds support above 1488.00 would be bullish.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes gapped up and rallied hard yesterday putting positive momentum on the daily bars and retracing more than 80% to last weeks high suggesting real buying. Trading above the confluence of the upper .214 and the Pivot (a powerful combination) as highlighted above and the buy side is favored with 108 14/32 as a minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil wiggled and jiggled it's way to an inside day on Monday closing poorly on the day. The daily bars look a bit bipolar lately but given momentum is still positive if Oil can trade with support above the loose confluence of the upper .382 and the Pivot the buy side is still favored with a minimum profit target of 66.650 Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Monday, April 30th Personal Income 8:30, NAPM-Chicago 9:45, Construction Spending 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM M7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Last week was a bad look for S&P short sellers looking for the gap to the 4/13 close to fill. Although historically this kind of gap has held a near 100% probability of filling, it has done so within 15 or 20 points of the gap fill close. Last week the S&P advanced over 40 points above the 4/13 close which now suggests something is potentially different this time. Equities continue to advance fueled by stable interest rates, good earnings and predominately a significant discount to foreign investors that have seen their buying power increase in the U.S. on almost a daily basis as the dollar gets hammered. The main recipient has been the Dow Jones Industrial Average significantly out pacing the Nasdaq (which filled the gap to the 4/13 close), breaking to new all-time highs and fueling the S&P to more than 125 points above last months low. Pullbacks in the S&P since 4/13 have been a meager 10 to 15 points before new highs have again kicked in. That said, the S&P is due for a more significant pullback but the prospect of filling the gap to the 4/13 close appears bleak relative to historical standards. If positioned short the S&P, look to buy the leading Dow index to offset the risk of your S&P position. Do this only on a significant pullback of 100 Dow points or more from the 2007 high!! Look to add to this position only as it goes your way so that it ultimately outweighs your S&P position. Today if a gap up at the open exists I will again be focused only on the short side in the S&P with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as my minimum profit target. Weakness at the open will likely be bought, but given the negative momentum on the daily bars, if the S&P offers resistance below the loose confluence of the upper .382 and the Pivot then the short side will also be favored with a break of Fridays low of 1494.75 as a minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes continued to sell as suggested in Fridays DATA Morning Call and if trading with resistance below the lower .214 and the Pivot today the short side will continue to be favored. Keep in mind Notes have been down several days in a row and a relief rally is cocked and loaded. Trading above 107 29.5/32 and all bets off the short side. Look for this potential rally to ultimately be a short opportunity.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil broke Thursdays low on Friday and then rallied through confluence to post a new high on the week once again suggesting the buy side is favored. Today trading above the confluence of the upper .382 and the Pivot, the buy side is favored with last weeks high of 66.650 as a minimum profit target and the contract march high of 68.20 as an ultimate target. Below 65.90 and all bets off the buy side in Oil. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
_____________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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