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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
* Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page!
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Friday, March 30th Personal Income 8:30, NAPM Chicago 9:45, Construction Spending and Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap up at the open was immediately sold against both the open and Wednesdays high in the S&P yesterday to ultimately break the low of the week posting an outside day. A late day rally took the S&P back to positive territory by the close. Today it is reasonable to assume that yesterdays late day strength will follow through and a test of the high of the week will occur. This is of course contingent on the economic announcements listed above and a cooling of middle east tensions which have so far only had a relatively minor impact on equities. A resolution there and the S&P will rally smartly. That said, momentum is still negative and relative strength is week over the last 4 sessions. Use the loose confluence of yesterdays close and today's Pivot as a line in the sand to trade against with yesterdays low of 1423.25 as a minimum profit target to the short side and Wednesdays close of 1440.50 as a minimum profit target to the buy side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes continued to fade on Thursday breaking the low of the week and closing poorly. I will continue to favor the short side today as long as trading with resistance below the lower .214, Pivot and yesterdays close as highlighted above looking for 107 31.5/32 minimum profit target. Today's economic announcements will likely dictate Notes directional bias. Trading above 108 8.5/32 and all bets off to the short side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil gapped up at the open and used the open as support to make a new high on the week and month. Expectations are high for a squeeze in to the Friday close but if Oil cannot trade with support above the open it is a short with 62.950 as my minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Thursday, March 29th Corporate Profits and GDP 8:30, Nat. Gas Inventory 10:30, 5-Year Note 1:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap down at the open on Wednesday suggested a buying opportunity. Resistance at the open within the first 30 minutes suggested otherwise and short sellers maintained control for a quick visit to 1424.25 whereupon a rally broke the high of the day just after noon and the balance of the day was spent fading the open. Today we again have confluence with yesterdays close and the lower .214 and the Pivot (a powerful combination). GDP and Corporate Profits will likely dictate much of today's price action. I am still bearish the S&P but trading above 1430.00 and the bulls will likely be in charge creating a rally to at least Tuesdays close of 1440.50 and perhaps a test of last weeks high.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes rallied off the Durable Goods number and Big Ben comments only to fade well below Tuesdays low after the 2-Year Note auction creating an outside day. We have confluence at 2 levels today worth short selling against. First we have the lower .382 and the Pivot at 108 15/32 and then the lower .214 and yesterdays close at 108 12/32 either of which should be a good line in the sand to trade against. I am still looking for 107 31.5/32 minimum in Notes.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil gapped up for the 4th time in 5 sessions yesterday suggesting a short opportunity as long as trading below the open. Price action was choppy and noncommittal as concerns regarding Iran continued to buoy the market. The Iranian situation will likely pass and Oil should return to the sub $60 area. When is the big question. When does not matter if you continue to pursue the short side of the market consistently. Notice in the last 5 sessions that if you shorted during the regular trading session Oil did not have legs to the upside. At some point news will break the market. Be aware that news can also force it higher, but as suggested earlier this too shall likely pass. Use the open as your line in the sand to trade against especially off gaps up at the open that are above the previous days high. Look for a substantial move lower. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, March 28th Durable Goods 8:30, Oil Inventory 10:30, 2-Year Note 1:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: The S&P could not trade above 1444.50 yesterday and maintained a short bias the entire day ultimately closing at the lower .382 and posting an inside day. We again have confluence at yesterdays close, the lower .382 and the Pivot to trade against today. My bias is still to the short side looking for a return to 1424.00 or lower. Trading above yesterdays high of 1444.25 with support and the short side is no longer favored. Durable Goods at 8:30am ET will likely set the tone for the day. A significant gap down at the open should only be bought if trading above the open looking for a gap fill and positive momentum on the daily bars.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes posted a relatively quiet inside day on Tuesday held down by the Pivot and closing at the lower .214. Our trading plan remains the same today as yesterday. We have Durable Goods at *;30am ET which will likely set the tone for the balance of the day. Notes have confluence at the lower .214 and the Pivot (A powerful combination) as well as yesterdays close.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A quiet inside day up until the last 30 minutes in Oil on Tuesday as the close was identical with Mondays open creating an inside day. As you might expect, in light of a lack of volatility, we have the identical trading plan today as yesterday. Oil has received an undue bump up over geopolitical concerns which when alleviated should see the low of March come back in to view. The march high is 63.575 in the May contract and if Oil breaks above this level look for it to be an excellent line in the sand to short against should Oil break below. A significant gap up at the open and Oil is a short as long as trading below the open with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, March 27th Consumer Confidence 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: The S&P came unglued on Monday breaking well below Fridays low and the upper .214 before turning and putting in a rally that broke above the high of the day. With a strong close at 1445.00 we must be careful today as short sellers. Notice the confluence of the upper .382 and Fridays low at 1444.50 as well as yesterdays close at 1445.00 together will likely offer a good line in the sand to trade against. Yesterdays price action and close suggests continued strength today and 1455.50 the .786 retracement to the high of the year is a distinct possibility so be defensive with short selling.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes gapped lower at the open and shot higher off the New Home Sales report at 10:00am ET yesterday suggesting the bull is not dead yet in treasuries. Trading above today's loose confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot and Notes are a buy. I am still more interested in working the buy side when 107 31.5/32 has been broken. If the S&P falls out of bed though, you should expect to re-visit lat weeks high of 109 2/32 minimum.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Another gap up on Monday at the open suggested a short selling opportunity but due to tensions in Iran could not trade very far from the open suggesting that if we get an additional gap up today we should once again pursue the short side as long as trading below the open. Oil has received an undue bump up over geopolitical concerns which when alleviated should see the low of March come back in to view. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Monday, March 26th New Home Sales 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: The S&P broke above Wednesdays high on Friday and retreated to the Pivot for the first time in 5 sessions. It is very reasonable to assume that the S&P is overcooked at these levels (75 points up in 6 sessions) and is due for a pullback on the daily bars that retraces most if not all of the move made on last Wednesday after the FOMC announcement. Without any significant economic announcements until this Wednesday we may have to be extraordinarily patient. Look at the chart below and notice that in the land of interest rates, that Notes have already retraced 100% of their move up from the FOMC announcement. You can see from the chart above that further ascent has been a struggle and that a capitulation in momentum is inevitable. Last months correction in the S&P is far from completion and it is important to understand that a "shot over the bow" such as last month has historically lead to additional and more extreme selling. Take a long term chart of the S&P cash index ($SPX) or the S&P SPYDERS (SPY) and look at the percentage retracement's of previous corrections and the propensity to trade through the 200 day moving average to get a clear understanding of why I suggest that last months selling lacks "completion." Our definitive line in the sand for this week will be last weeks high of 1451.00 in the June futures contract. Above this level we have R2 at 1454.00 and the .786 retracement from this months low to the high of the year at 1455.50 which should serve up significant resistance. Weakness that breaks Fridays low of 1444.50 should offer resistance between 1444.50 and the Pivot at 1447.50 to maintain a short bias.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes fell out of bed on Friday and if continuing to trade below the confluence of the lower .214 and the Pivot (a powerful combination) they should be sold short for a minimum profit target of 108 9.5/32 and an ultimate target of 107 31.5/32 which remains a likely/inevitable level for Notes. Above confluence all bets off to the short side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A gap up on Friday at the open suggested a short selling opportunity that due to tensions in Iran could not trade very far from the open suggesting that if we get an additional gap up today we should once again pursue the short side as long as trading below the open. Oil has received an undue bump up over geopolitical concerns which when alleviated should see the low of March come back in to view. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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