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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
* Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page!
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Friday, March 23rd Existing Home Sales 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: An inside day that closed identical to Wednesday leaves us with the Pivot right at yesterdays close. Look for resistance at the Pivot or the Fib high to short sell against today with negative momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target and ultimately a return to 1424.00. A gap up above the Fib high at the open and I will be aggressively shorting the S&P as long as trading below the open. Continued selling in the Notes may have a negative impact on the S&P as well. That said with only one minor economic announcement today, buyers may jack up short sellers in to the close of the week forcing new highs that stick in to today's close.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes found resistance at confluence yesterday and sold back to pre-FOMC levels creating an inside day. Economic announcements are light till next Wednesday and significant price action outside of Wednesdays range may be unlikely. Given the poor relative strength and low close yesterday it is likely that Notes will be a short today as long as trading with resistance against the confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above. Look for a break of Wednesdays low of 108 10/32 minimum and ultimately a return to 107 31.5/32
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil rallied pre-market on Thursday easily breaking above my minimum profit target and closing up over $2 not affording the regular trading hours much opportunity. Given the size of this gap it will likely fill and if another gap up today exists at the open I will work the short side in oil as long as trading below the open with negative momentum on the daily bars and a gap fill to 59.70 as my minimum profit target.
Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Thursday, March 22nd Jobless 8:30, Leading Indicators 10:00, Nat. Gas Inventory 10:30am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Strength persisted on Wednesday morning without a return to the Pivot for the 3rd straight day in the S&P and a bullish FOMC announcement sent the market in to the stratosphere. Playing it safe to the short side was good advice but if you got stubborn like this trader you found yourself on the wrong side of a 20+ point rally. It is reasonable to assume that yesterdays strength will continue today to break above the Fib high of 1449.75 whereupon the struggle should begin before a correction takes the S&P back to Tuesdays high of 1424.00 over the next week or so. A retracement to the Pivot at 1438.00 is likely today given that today would be the 4th day in a row that the S&P has not traded at the Pivot if it does not. As suggested in previous DATA Morning Call and in the DATA chat room the correction in the S&P that began last month has yet to hit the 200 day moving average or even correct as much as last summers sell-off from the May high to the June low. It is highly probable that this will still occur. Meanwhile the bulls have the shorts on the run and more upside pressure short term should be expected.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes cratered from the open yesterday breaking the low of the week only to shoot higher off the FOMC announcement closing at a new high for the week. Today it is reasonable to assume that yesterdays strength will continue as long as trading above the confluence of the upper .382 and the Pivot but expect a struggle especially above the high of the month at 109 11.5/32
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil continued to trade inside of last Fridays range yesterday and even inside of Tuesdays range with the lowest volatility we have seen in some time which is quite unusual given that yesterday was Oil inventory day. Our trading plan therefore remains the same. A break below 58.85 that rallies and finds support above 58.850 will be worth buying. A gap down at the open that is below 58.850 at the open I will be working the buy side as long as trading above the open with 60.975 as my minimum profit target.
Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, March 21st Oil Inventory 10:30am, FOMC Announcement 2:15pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: The S&P continued to break higher on Tuesday in front of today's FOMC announcement finding resistance at the 3/9 high from 2 weeks ago. Today it is reasonable to assume that yesterdays strength will continue in the morning breaking above yesterdays high of 1424.00 before running in to significant resistance. Again today, I will continue to focus only on short opportunities in the S&P. I will once again begin to position short especially above yesterdays high of 1424.00 with the expectation that the FOMC announcement at 2:15pm will be the catalyst to send the S&P back to last weeks low. A safer way to play the short side would be to trade failure patterns that exist after a break above 1424.00 but then fail below that level. Look for a return to last Fridays close of 1399.00 as a minimum profit target and last weeks low of 1375.25 as an ultimate profit target. A note to scalpers: for the past 2 sessions the S&P has not been able to trade at the Pivot and that is likely not to be the case today. So if trading near or above yesterdays high at the open expect to see 1420.00 at some point today.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes moved higher off support at the Pivot and lower .214 but did not have legs in the face of an advancing S&P. Today is FOMC day and at 2:15 the treasury market will likely be elated or disappointed. Elation is likely to find resistance at last weeks high of 109 8.5/32 and disappointment is likely to break 108 even. We have perfect confluence at the upper .382 and teh Pivot to trade against today. The March Notes contract expires today at 1pm ET so be sure to be out of March Notes by noon. Be in the DATA chat room for the latest analysis.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil continued to trade inside of last Fridays range yesterday closing below Mondays low suggesting Oil will break below last weeks low whereupon we may see real buyers return. A break below 58.85 that rallies and finds support above 58.850 will be worth buying. A gap down at the open that is below 58.850 at the open I will be working the buy side as long as trading above the open with 60.975 as my minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, March 20th Housing Starts 8:30, State Street Investor Confidence 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap up at the open erased Fridays losses in the S&P as a break well above Fridays high lead to an even higher close. Today is the day before FOMC which tends to have a bullish bias in the afternoon. In the big picture my focus remains committed to short opportunities in the S&P. I will once again begin to position short especially above yesterdays high of 1415.75 with the expectation that the FOMC announcement at 2:15pm on Wednesday will be the catalyst to send the S&P back to last weeks low. A safer way to play the short side would be to trade failure patterns that exist after a break above 1415.75 but then fail below. Look for a return to Fridays close of 1399.00 as a minimum profit target and last weeks low of 1375.25 as an ultimate profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes broke the Fib low by a tick and bounced like a bowling ball on Monday but did manage to stay above the Fib low for the balance of the day. Notes still look heavy and trading below the lower .214 of 108 21/32 are likely still a short for a return to 107 31.5/32 and is further likely if the S&P continues to rally. A falling S&P with Notes above 108 21/32 and all bets off to the short side in Notes. Today is the day before FOMC and traders will be looking to get positioned in front of tomorrows announcement.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil opened at Fridays close yesterday and that is just about where Oil closed at the end of the day posting an inside day as can be seen in the chart above. This suggests using the same trading plan as yesterday. Today it is reasonable to assume that weakness will continue as long as trading with resistance against the confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above which is not far from Fridays close with last weeks low of 58.850 as my minimum profit target. Be aware that below last weeks low and Oil is $5 off the March high and buyers are likely to step up. If considering the buy side after last weeks low has been broken then use last weeks low as a line in the sand to buy against off support with 60.975 as a minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Monday, March 19th No Significant Economic Announcements Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN M7 (10 Year Note) and QM K7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: As suggested in Fridays DATA Morning Call, the short side was the place to be as 1408.50 offered near perfect resistance for a break below Thursdays low creating an outside day. Today it is reasonable to assume that selling will continue in the S&P as long as trading with resistance below the loose confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot with Fridays low of 1395.25 as my minimum profit target and last weeks low of 1375.25 as my ultimate target. I remain focused to the short side and I am not interested in the buy side at this time. Should a rally exist that breaks above confluence I will not buy in. Instead I will be patient and wait for the next short selling opportunity to emerge.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes continued to sell on Friday but with little exuberance as Thursdays close offered resistance several times during the day and the close only a few ticks below the previous close. Notes continue to act defensively as if anticipating a significant move lower in equities which appears inevitable. My favorite trades in Notes are to short the breakouts above the previous weeks high looking for 16/32 or more in minimum profit targets. Although Notes have the capacity to rally, efforts to the buy side appear to be limited and I prefer to keep my focus to the short side in the big picture.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: An initial attempt to rally off confluence was faded to a new low on the week Friday in Oil. Today it is reasonable to assume that weakness will continue as long as trading with resistance against the confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above which is not far from Fridays close with last weeks low of 58.850 as my minimum profit target. Be aware that below last weeks low and Oil is $5 off the March high and buyers are likely to step up. If considering the buy side after last weeks low has been broken then use last weeks low as a line in the sand to buy against off support with 60.975 as a minimum profit target. Oil rolls to the May contract today (hence the significantly different Fib and Pivot numbers above) so be sure to exit all April contracts today and trade only the May contract (QM K7). Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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