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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
* Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page!
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Friday, March 16th CPI 8:30, Industrial Production 9:15, Consumer Sentiment 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: The S&P moved higher yesterday but as expected in DATA Morning Call and in the DATA chat room, the bulls were held back by resistance at the upper .382 and just below last Fridays low. Today we have the CPI and Industrial Production reports that will likely have an effect on both equity and treasury markets. My expectation is that yesterdays strength will be faded and a new test and a break of this weeks low is inevitable. We have 2 lines in the sand to short against today. The first is the upper .214 at 1401.50 which is within 2 ticks of Wednesdays high and of course 1408.50 which is the current Fib Grid high above which all bets off to the short side. Today we have the simultaneous expiration of stock options, futures, options on futures and individual stock futures better known as Quadruple Witching. The March S&P contract will cease to exist as of 9:30am ET today.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A small gap down and a relatively quiet day in the face of higher S&P's suggest Notes are not quite ready to throw in the towel and retreat to my ultimate profit target. Today we have the CPI and Industrial Production reports that will likely have an effect on both equity and treasury markets. A strong rally in the S&P will likely see Notes retreat to the low of the week minimum. My expectation is selling in the S&P which if aggressive will once again likely see Notes approaching if not breaking the high of the week.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil broke Wednesdays high by a tick and spent the balance of the day slipping and sliding back to the low of the week. Today it is reasonable to assume that if trading with resistance below the loose confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above that Oil will make a new low on the week with 57.150 as my minimum profit target. A break above yesterdays high and I will be buying pullbacks that maintain above confluence with 59.925 as my minimum profit target. A significant gap down below yesterdays low and I will be working the buy side as long as trading above the open. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Thursday, March 15th PPI and Empire State Index 8:30, Nat. Gas Inventory 10:30am, Philly Fed 12:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Resistance at the lower .214 offered selling in the S&P on Wednesday that easily broke through my minimum profit target of 1383.75 before rebounding over 25 points. Today it is reasonable to assume that yesterdays strength will continue. In the big picture I am expecting that strength to be sold in to as the S&P has yet to touch the 200 day moving average or even have a percentage correction as deep as last summer. As impressive as yesterdays "V" bottom appears, it is likely a short squeeze that will ultimately be defeated. Look for resistance at the upper .382 of 1405.25 the upper .214 of 1413.50 and potentially 1410.00 last Fridays low with a minimum profit target of 1375.25 yesterdays low. Now that scenario offers from 3 to 11 points of upside potential in the S&P from yesterdays close versus 30 to 40 points of minimum down side potential. Which trade do you want to focus on? Today we have PPI at 8:30am and Philly Fed at 12:00pm ET both of which have the capacity to significantly move equity and treasury markets.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes broke higher yesterday from the collapse in the S&P and then offered their own sell-off in the afternoon as the S&P rebounded. Today we have PPI at 8:30am and Philly Fed at 12:00pm ET both of which have the capacity to significantly move equity and treasury markets. Yesterdays late selling is likely to continue today especially if yesterdays late buying continues in the S&P. Confluence at the upper .214 and the Pivot may offer resistance today and unless there is a complete meltdown of the S&P it is unlikely we will see a rally today in Notes. To the short side my minimum profit target is last weeks low of 108 7/32 and ultimately the gap fill at 107 31.5/32
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: As suggested in DATA Morning Call, Oil slipped lower on Wednesday only to rebound in the afternoon and close higher than on Tuesday. As mentioned in the DATA chat room, each break to new lows both pre-market and regular trading hours was accumulated in front of todays OPEC meeting in Vienna. Much of the outcome of that meeting should be priced in by noon today and the chart is suggesting a rebound in Oil today. Numbers for support are a bit scattered today but I like the idea that if trading above Tuesdays low of 57.775 then Oil is a buy on pullbacks looking for a minimum profit target of 59.925 with all bets off the buy side below 57.775 Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, March 14th Import/Export 8:30, Quarterly Services 10:00, Oil Inventory 10:30am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: As suggested in the last few DATA Morning Call's, the short side was the place to be yesterday with a substantial move lower within 5 points of last weeks low. Today it is reasonable to assume that yesterdays weakness will continue with 1383.75 as my minimum profit target. As of yesterdays close the 200 day moving average in the cash S&P is 1349 which equates to 1361 in the June contract which will be my ultimate target today. I am only interested in the buy side if a substantial gap down well below yesterdays low exists at the open in which case I will pursue the buy side as long as trading above the open with a gap fill and positive momentum on the daily bars as my minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: As suggested in DATA Morning Call, Notes sensitivity to the S&P selling created a rally yesterday that tested last weeks high. Since my expectation is further selling today in the S&P it is reasonable to assume further buying in notes to well above 109 05/32 today. a significant gap up at the open and I will pursue the short side in Notes as long as trading below the open with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as my minimum profit target. When the S&P is done digesting the current selling expect a move back to 107 31.5/32 in Notes.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A gap up at the open was faded yesterday to well below Mondays low creating an outside day in Oil. Today it is reasonable to assume selling will continue as long as trading below the confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above. This confluence shares Mondays low as well and should offer substantial resistance and if not all bets off to the short side. Look for a break of yesterdays low of 57.775 as my minimum profit target and 57.125 as my ultimate target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, March 13th Retail Sales 8:30, Business Inventories 10:00, 10-Year Note Auction 1:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A lower open yesterday was not capable of breaking Fridays low and subsequently rallied in the afternoon but was contained well below Fridays high posting an inside day and leaving us with the same Fib Grid and near identical Pivot Points for today. Retail Sales at 8:30am ET will likely set the tone for the day and I am still very interested in the short side. Confluence at the upper .382 and the Pivot may be a good line in the sand to trade against today. Be aware how the S&P trades against Fridays high of 1424.00 and Thursdays high of 1422.00 which was sold against yesterday afternoon. Again, I am looking for a significant move lower in the S&P this week.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A rally right from the open in Notes offered a 60% retracement back to the Fib Grid high negating any reason to pursue the short side in Notes on Monday and posting an inside day. Yesterdays close is smack in the middle of the Fib Grid and today's Retail Sales report at 8:30am ET will likely be a catalyst for price action throughout the day. Notes are still hyper sensitive to equities and significant moves in the S&P will likely have an influence. We have loose confluence that will likely be left behind after the Retail Sales report and currently suggest a short bias in Notes with 107 31.5/32 as my minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil fell out of bed right from the open yesterday and may have some more to go today. Keep in mind though, that yesterdays gap down is a high probability gap down that will likely fill in the near future. Today's Pivot holds loose confluence with yesterdays close and will be a good line in the sand to buy against. Look for a return to 60.075 minimum. A gap down at the open that is below yesterdays low of 58.60 and I will work nothing but the buy side as long as trading above the open. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Monday, March 12th No Significant Announcements Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap up at the open on Friday offered an exceptional shorting opportunity that found support at the break of Thursdays low creating an outside day. As suggested in the last few DATA Morning Call's, strength is systematically being sold and we may see a test of last weeks low by the end of this week. That is significant because as can be seen in the Fib Grid above, there are 40 points between last weeks high and low. Therefore I will be using last weeks high of 1424.00 as my line in the sand to sell short against this week with last weeks low of 1383.75 as my ultimate profit target. A likely trade scenario would be strength today that breaks above 1424.00 but cannot hold above that level and begins to fade with resistance against that level. Look to have at least 1 position on that is committed as a short term position trade to capture this move.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes fell out of bed on Friday off a tame Employment report threatening to fill the gap at 107 31.5/32 that I have been suggesting. Today it is reasonable to assume that Notes will continue to fade as long as trading below the loose confluence of the lower .382 and the Pivot with 107 31.5/32 as my minimum profit target. A rally in Notes will likely be lead by selling in the S&P as the correlation between the two has been extremely sensitive lately.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil could not hold confluence early on Friday morning and ultimately broke Thursdays low and became a short candidate closing at the lower .214 of the Fib Grid and low of the day. Today it is reasonable to assume that Oil will continue selling as Fridays move lower was at greater pace than any rally experienced last week. Look for Oil to remain below the confluence of the lower .214 and the Pivot as highlighted above with last weeks low of 59.550 as my minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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