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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
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Friday, March 9th Employment and International Trade 8:30, Wholesale Trade 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A large gap up at the open of 10 points was bought in to initially then sold in the afternoon with the cash close right at the open. Today we have the all-important Employment Report and International Trade at 8:30am ET which will likely have a significant impact on both equities and treasuries. The S&P is loaded with 3 days of buyers that if disappointed will likely be punished off a soft employment number and Mondays low of 1383.75 will likely once again come in to view. That said the S&P is at the mercy of economic announcements that as suggested in previous DATA Morning Call, could return the March contract back to the 1420 level which would be 1432 in the new June contract. Today's Pivot holds loose confluence with yesterdays close and may offer a good line in the sand to trade against. Again, if yesterdays high breaks and then fails to maintain above the high I am very interested in the short side of the S&P.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes posted a relatively quiet inside day yesterday as a double bottom with Wednesdays low lead to a small rally leaving us with the same Fib Grid today and near identical Pivot Points. Today we have the all-important Employment Report and International Trade at 8:30am ET which will likely have a significant impact on both equities and treasuries. Notes have been struggling for 5 sessions to maintain the current level but a soft Employment Report and Notes will likely make a new high on the week especially if the S&P falls out of bed. That said we still have gaps to fill below at 107 31.5/32 and lower which is my minimum profit target to the downside. Confluence at the upper .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above may offer a good line in the sand to trade against today.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A realtively quiet inside day leaves Oil with the same Fib Grid as yesterday and confluence with the Pivot in a nearly identical location. Momentum is still positive and relative strength high with confluence at the Pivot and yesterdays close and the upper .214 just 4 ticks below suggesting a move higher today. Below 61.625 and all bets off to the buy side. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Thursday, March 8th Jobless 8:30, Natural Gas Inventory 10:30 ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES M7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Strength in the S&P ultimately found resistance at Tuesdays high and sold to the low of the day before closing at the upper .214 yesterday. Today I have a similar plan as yesterday looking for Tuesdays high of 1411.75 or yesterdays high of 1414.50 to offer resistance to short sell against with Mondays low of 1383.75 as my minimum profit target. We have new numbers to consider today given that the e-mini S&P has rolled to the June contract (ES M7) as of yesterdays close.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A gap up at the open found support at Tuesday afternoons low and ultimately at the Pivot before rallying to new highs on the day capitulating momentum to positive. Trading above today's confluence at the upper .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above and the buy side will be favored in Notes with 109 5/32 as a minimum profit target. A gap up at the open that cannot stay above the open and I will be working the short side in Notes with 108 21/32 as my minimum profit target and 107 31.5/32 as my ultimate target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil gapped up at the open and kept going higher helped by a lean inventory report 30 minutes after the open. Yesterdays close suggests further strength today and as suggested in yesterdays DATA Morning Call, 62.40 is my ultimate profit target in Oil. Look for support at confluence as highlighted above. Trading below yesterdays low of 60.725 and the short side will be favored with 59.550 as my minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, March 7th ADP 8:15, Oil Inventory 10:30 and Beige Book 2:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES H7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A strong gap up at the open was initially faded yesterday only to be bought to new highs closing above Mondays high and posting positive momentum on the daily bars. Not inclined to buy in to 15 to 20 point up days and committed to buying extreme weakness (not strength) I missed this move as most folks that were not trading at 1am did. But have I really missed the move? I think not. It is highly unlikely that Mondays low is the low of the current move down. We still have key targets such as the 200 day moving average at 1345 in the $SPX (the cash index for the S&P) and percentage declines of 7.5% at 1352 and 10% at 1316 to take in to consideration. These numbers are based upon the cash S&P not the futures as we roll tomorrow to the June contract which will have a 12 point premium over the soon to expire March contract. As much as I have been suggesting buy extreme weakness over the last few sessions, I am now suggesting shorting strength. Use yesterdays high of 1399.50 or Mondays high of 1393.75 as your line in the sand to short sell against with Mondays low of 1371.25 as a minimum profit target. Notice Mondays high shares confluence with today's upper .214 and should be a brick wall of resistance. If not all bets off to the short side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A gap down at the open was bought on Tuesday to well above Mondays close only to settle back at the upper .214 which due to the negative momentum on the daily bars becomes the lower .214 today. Yesterdays price action in Notes was disappointing for short sellers in that despite a near 30 point rally in the S&P Notes only broke 3/32 below Mondays low suggesting few sellers in an environment that should have had many. Today we have confluence at the lower .214 and the Pivot (a powerful combination) that if cannot hold back the bulls then new highs on the week are very probable, especially if the S&P falls out of bed as I am suggesting above. Be defensive with shorts in Notes. Stay short below confluence but if trading above with support it is time to cover.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil maintained a tight range on Tuesday uncharacteristic of a capitulation to positive momentum day that suggested a gap fill to Fridays close. Today I will be pursuing the buy side as long as trading above the confluence of the upper .214 and the Pivot as highlighted above with Fridays close of 61.575 as my minimum profit target and last weeks high of 62.40 as my ultimate target. Price action was soft yesterday so be sure that all bets off to the buy side trading below confluence. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, March 6th Productivity and Costs, Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES H7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap down at the open lead to buying in the S&P on Monday that by afternoon was a memory as sellers once again took control pushing prices through the low of the day. Look at the chart above and notice that each break to a new low since last Tuesday has been bought for 10 points or more. Smart money is accumulating extreme weakness in the S&P and it is only a matter of time before we get a relief rally as suggested in previous DATA Morning Call. Today I will be an aggressive buyer on a gap down at the open that is below yesterdays low as long as trading above the open. Below the open and all bets off to the buy side. If strength exists at the open I will use yesterdays low of 1371.25 as my line in the sand to buy against. Again, look for at least a 20 point rally and ultimately a move back to 1420.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes gapped up at the open and faded much of the day yesterday. It is interesting that Notes could not muster a rally back to the high of the day even though the S&P easily broke the low of the day in to the close. Notes continue to be a short at this level with a return ultimately to 107 31.5. Today's upper .214 of 108 24/32 is an excellent line in the sand to short against above which all bets off to pursuing the short side in Notes. It is not a bad idea to keep an eye on the S&P as Notes are hypersensitive to the equity markets at this time.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil gapped down on Monday breaking below last weeks low with weakness that suggests if trading below the lower .214 and the Pivot as highlighted above short selling is in favor. That said Oil loves to fill gaps so be aware that a move above yesterdays high of 60.725 could muster a rally back to Fridays close of 61.575 and potentially the high of last week 62.40 Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Monday, March 5th ISM Non-Manufacturing 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES H7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: The S&P offered a small rally in the morning but by afternoon had turned to the dark side and ultimately traded below Tuesdays low closing just off the low of the day. Equity and Treasury markets left us Friday with a look that suggests lower prices for the S&P today and potentially way lower to the 1320 area. Again, I am very interested in buying extreme weakness on a gap down that maintains above the open or a break of last weeks low that then finds support above the low. I am looking for a return ultimately to the 1420.00 level at some point this week. The potential for extreme selling exists today and will likely be lead by overseas selling well before U.S. markets open. If Notes are trading above Fridays close of 108 28/32 then S&P's will likely be trading below 1385.75
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A relatively quiet inside day for Notes that closed near the high of the day as the fear of another leg down in the equity markets bolstered treasuries. With an inside day on Friday my trading plan remains the same today. Notes sensitivity to the health of the equity market is very high and if the S&P cannot maintain high relative strength as suggested then Notes will likely respond with a rally. My bias is still short Notes and is potentially premature but should pan out with the inevitable rebound in equities.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A relatively quiet inside day left Oil lower at the close and suggesting no change from Fridays trading plan. Today my bias remains to the buy side in Oil as long as trading above the loose confluence highlighted above with yesterdays high of 62.40 as my minimum profit target and 63.40 as my ultimate target. A break below 61.10 and the short side will be favored as long as offering resistance below confluence with 60.30 as my minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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