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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
* Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page!
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Friday, March 2nd Consumer Confidence 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES H7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap down at the open offered a new low on the week yesterday only to be aggressively bought back to above Wednesdays close and settling at the lower .214 at days end. Yesterdays rally was impressive in the morning but lacked conviction in the afternoon. Today is the 3rd session after the big drop on Tuesday and there exists a possibility of margin call forced liquidation especially in front of the weekend. My bias is still to the buy side but relative strength must stay high today above the Pivot of 1399.25 and preferably above 1402.00 which is Thursdays afternoon low. Below this level expect a test and potentially a break of yesterdays low of 1380.75 which once again, if breaks that level and the trades with support above that level I will be working the buy side. My minimum profit target is positive momentum on the daily bars at 1412.00 then 1422.00 and ultimately a gap fill to 1452.50 which should not be expected today.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes broke above the high of the week yesterday and immediately retreated suggesting we may get negative momentum on the daily bars today. Notes sensitivity to the health of the equity market is very high and if the S&P cannot maintain high relative strength as suggested above then Notes will likely respond with a rally. We have loose confluence as highlighted above to trade against today but again, all eyes will likely be on the S&P to determine bias. My bias is still short Notes and is potentially premature but should pan out with the inevitable rebound in equities.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil opened weak and rallied off confluence to a new high on the week yet closed below the old high at the end of the day. Similar to the S&P, great price action in the morning session and not so great in the afternoon leaving me suspect towards a continuation of strength today even though my ultimate profit target of 63.40 has not been reached. Today my bias remains to the buy side in Oil as long as trading above the loose confluence highlighted above with yesterdays high of 62.40 as my minimum profit target and 63.40 as my ultimate target. A break below 61.10 and the short side will be favored as long as offering resistance below confluence with 60.30 as my minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Thursday, March 1st Personal Income 8:30, Construction Spending and ISM-Mfg 10:00, Nat Gas Inventory 10:30am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES H7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Over 20 points of range on the day offered relatively quiet price action yesterday compared with Tuesday. The entire range of the day was run in the first hour and a half and the afternoon session could not get legs one way or the other posting an inside day. Yesterdays price action was neither very bullish or bearish having closed at the Pivot and middle of the days range giving few clues for today's price action. Today we have confluence at yesterdays close and today's Pivot and I will use this as my line in the sand to buy against. I am not terribly interested in the short side at this time and will pursue buying gaps down at the open that maintain support above the open or breaks below Tuesdays low that cannot maintain below Tuesdays low looking for at least a 20 point move higher. Be in the DATA chat room for the latest analysis.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes rallied to test Tuesdays high yesterday but failed to break through relaxing to well below the upper .214 to ultimately close just above posting an inside day. Today I am still interested in the short side in Notes. A reversal in the equity market is inevitable at which point we should see Notes relax and at least fill the gap back to Mondays close of 107 30.5/32. I am very interested in the short side above Tuesdays high of 108 27/32 especially if this level breaks and then fails. Loose confluence at the upper .214 and the Pivot as highlighted above will potentially offer resistance to short sell against as well. We have economic announcements that will more than likely have a profound influence on both the equity and treasury markets this morning. Notes have rolled to the June contract ZN M7 and due to an inside day have the same Fib grid but with slightly different numbers.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil opened lower and broke Wednesdays low before rallying more than 80% of the way back to the high of the week. Oil has exuded strength every day since last Tuesday and appears destined to break out of 62.250 and hit the mid $63 level. Today I will pursue the buy side in Oil as long as trading with support above the loose confluence of the upper .382 and the Pivot with 63.40 as my ultimate profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, February 28th GDP 8:30, NAPM-Chicago 9:45, New Home Sales 10:00, Oil Inventory 10:30am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES H7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: As can be seen in the chart above, the S&P had a particularly rough day on Tuesday. Coming off a 52 week high and with little warning, the S&P sold off more than 4% before closing at a 4.0 point discount to the cash close. With more than a 10 point gap down at the open, the S&P initially suggested a buying opportunity but the inability to trade above the open negated trades to the buy side. This price action is somewhat reminiscent of April 4th of 2000 which was bought in to the following 4 sessions before selling more than 150 points. Today, strength at the open will likely be sold in to and a gap down below yesterdays low will likely be bought. If a gap down exists at the open, work nothing but the buy side as long as trading above the open. Strength at the open can be shorted against the open but do not pursue the short side if trading above the open. My primary bias at this time is to focus on buy opportunities given the oversold condition that currently exists. Look for at least 20 point profit targets to the buy side and yes, even a gap fill to Mondays close of 1452.50. We have economic announcements that will more than likely have a profound influence on both the equity and treasury markets this morning.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes received undue favor on Tuesday because of the demise in the equity market as a flight to safety/quality over-inflated Notes by as much as a full point. A reversal in the equity market is inevitable at which point we should see Notes relax and at least fill the gap back to Mondays close of 107 30.5/32. I am very interested in the short side above yesterdays high of 108 27/32 especially if this level breaks and then fails. We have economic announcements that will more than likely have a profound influence on both the equity and treasury markets this morning.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil opened weak on Tuesday only to rally well above Mondays high as well as last weeks high creating an outside day. Today I will continue to focus on the short side looking for an honest day of negative momentum on the daily bars (a lower high and a lower low) as it is overdue and inevitable. Today's Pivot has loose confluence with yesterdays close and presents a good line in the sand to short against, above which all bets off to the short side. Trading above yesterdays high of 62.250 and I will look for any good reason to short Oil today especially off a breakout above 62.250 that fails to maintain above that number. Look for a significant pullback of at least $1.00 and negative momentum on the daily bars. I am not interested in the buy side at this time. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, February 27th Durable Goods 8:30, Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales 10:00am ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES H7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap up at the open created plosive momentum on the daily bars right from the start on Monday only to fade the open and Fridays high and ultimately break Fridays low creating an outside day and easily hitting my profit target of 1449.25. With positive momentum on the daily bars and a strong bounce at the lower .214 as can be seen in the chart above, it appeared as if the bears had limited grip on the market yet they came back strong. Yesterdays close is well above last weeks low (yesterdays Fib low) and again suggesting the potential for a rally today. This has not come to fruition the last few days that have suggested the same but the S&P has now closed lower the last 4 sessions and is due for a bounce. Last weeks low is also today's lower .214 that if offers support the buy side may be the place to be for a run back to the 2007 high of 1464.75. That said, momentum is still negative and relative strength still weak. A gap down at the open that is below yesterdays low of 1447.75 and I will be working nothing but the buy side with a gap fill and positive momentum as my minimum profit target and 1464.75 as my ultimate target. Be aware we have important economic announcements the next 3 days that will have an effect on the S&P both pre-market and during regular trading hours.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes gapped higher on Monday breaking well above last weeks high leaving behind a high probability gap that will likely fill in the near future. Look to work the short side in Notes today on a gap up or a trade above yesterdays high that does not maintain above yesterdays high. Look for negative momentum on the daily bars as a minimum profit target. The upper .214 shares confluence with S1 and needs to be broken for significant selling to exist.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil opened on a small gap up and on several occasions faded Fridays high yesterday to ultimately post an inside day on a 4th day of higher closes and the 5th day to close above the open. This is due to end and I will look for any good reason to short Oil today especially off a breakout above Fridays high of 61.80 that fails to maintain above that number. Look for a significant pullback of at least $1.00 and negative momentum on the daily bars. I am not interested in the buy side at this time. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Monday, February 26th No Significant Economic Announcements Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES H7 (S&P500), ZN H7 (10 Year Note) and QM J7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: As suggested in Fridays DATA Morning Call, the S&P continued selling to well below the Fib low but not quite to my profit target of 1449.25 and as suggested in the DATA chat room, has been unable to break below the morning session in the afternoon since 2/12. Continued selling is inevitable in the S&P and I will continue to pursue the short side today as long as trading below the confluence of the lower .214 and the Pivot which is also Fridays close. Today's S1 is 2 ticks from my profit target therefore take at least half your short positions off at this level.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes found support at the Pivot and rallied hard to the Fib high before relaxing back to the upper .214 before closing. Today it is reasonable to assume that Fridays strength will continue as long as the upper .214 and the Pivot as highlighted above offer support. Be aware, with important economic announcements on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday Notes may be setting up for a fall above 107 26/32.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAY'S market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil posted new highs that easily broke above my ultimate profit target for longs of 61.35 and .40 higher was sold in to nicely affording a quick short that yielded more than 1.00 all before lunch. Today I will continue to focus on the short side in Oil especially off gaps up at the open or trading above the Fib high with price action that cannot maintain above the Fib high. Be in the DATA chat room for the latest analysis. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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