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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is a subscription based daily service that is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. DATA Morning Call reveals exactly where we will be buying or shorting and exactly where we will be booking profits. By focusing on learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and it is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account may be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
* Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page!
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Friday, December 1st Construction Spending and ISM - Mfg. 10:00 ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES Z6 (S&P500), ZN Z6 (10 Year Note) and QM F7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Despite a miserable NAPM-Chicago number after an even more miserable Durable Goods number on Tuesday, the S&P rallied to new highs on the week yesterday trading within 3 points of the 2006 high. So what gives here? Since Wednesday of last week we have seen a monstrous move against the U.S. dollar making our stock market cheap for foreign investors. The strong earnings are there the bullish technical's are in place and suddenly in less than a week currency valuation provides foreigners with an inherent discount to our market. With perfect confluence at the upper .214 and the Pivot today, expect support in this area of 1402.50 to carry the S&P higher with the 2006 high of 1411.25 as an ultimate profit target. Trading with resistance below 1402.50 and all bets to the buy side come off.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A small gap up at the open saw higher prices in Notes as the confluence of the upper .214 and the Pivot offered support off the 8:30 economic announcements. Notes are over-cooked at yesterdays close and likely a good short on a gap up above yesterdays high. I am not interested in the buy side here in Notes until a significant pullback on the daily bars exists.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A significant gap up at the open yesterday signaled a high probability short opportunity yet Oil screamed to new highs in the last 30 minutes of the day. So what is going on here? Similar to what is happening in the S&P, Oil is priced in U.S. dollars and as the dollar has been bashed in the last week or so the price in Oil has been reflective of this devaluation. Short-term the dollar is due for a bounce and that will likely help to create the pullback I am looking for in Oil. Yesterdays open of 62.90 is still my line in the sand to short sell against today with a gap fill to Wednesdays close as my minimum profit target. I am not at all interested in the buy side in Oil at the current level. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Thursday, November 30th Jobless and Personal Income 8:30, NAPM Chicago 10:00, Nat. Gas Inventory 10:30 ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES Z6 (S&P500), ZN Z6 (10 Year Note) and QM F7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap up at the open was immediately bought yesterday and despite significant afternoon selling the S&P closed near the high of the day. As long as trading with support above the loose confluence of the upper .214 and the Pivot the S&P is a buy today with the 2006 high of 1411.25 as my ultimate profit target. The depth of yesterdays pullback leaves me somewhat suspect of this current rally. Be aware that just above yesterdays high is the .786 retracement to the 2006 high and if the S&P cannot maintain above 1403.50 it may be a very valid short. That said, a gap up above yesterdays high at the open and I will be working nothing but the short side as long as trading below the open with a gap fill and negative momentum on the daily bars as my minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: As suggested in DATA Morning Call, Notes were best left alone on Wednesday as gyrations due to a number of announcements produced an inside day. Notes need to pullback considerably here to get me once again interested in the buy side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A gap up and Oil took off to new highs on Wednesday helped by a tight inventory report that easily surpassed my ultimate profit target and closed Oil at the high of the day. I am no longer inetersted in the buy side in Oil at the current level and will pursue the short side today should Oil gap up at the open as long as Oil trades below the open with negative momentum on the daily bars and Tuesdays close of 60.975 as my minimum profit target. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Wednesday, November 29th GDP and Corporate Profits 8:30, New Home Sales 10:00, Oil Inventory 10:30, 5-Year Note Auction 1:00, Beige Book 2:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES Z6 (S&P500), ZN Z6 (10 Year Note) and QM F7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap down at the open was scooped up on Tuesday closing right at the lower .214 suggesting the bulls are not dead yet. We have GDP at 8:30am ET today which should define price action for the balance of the day. Above 1390.50 we have positive momentum on the daily bars and the buy side will be favored as long as trading above the confluence of the lower .214 and the Pivot. Weakness at the open that is below confluence should be sold short as long as confluence offers resistance with yesterdays low of 1380.00 as a minimum profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes smacked my ultimate profit target on Tuesday and are now rather over-cooked to the buy side. With GDP at 8:30am ET today expect volatility especially in the morning session. A rally in equities off GDP will likely see Notes selling. The 5-Year Note auction at 1pm ET will also have an impact on the afternoon session. This is probably a fine day to leave Notes alone, sit back and be patient for the next inevitable pullback on the daily bars to buy.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil continued to rally on Tuesday as a gap up at the open produced a higher close at the end of the day. Today I will continue to pursue the buy side with the 11/10 close of 61.550 in the January contract as my ultimate profit target as Oil at that level will likely be do for a pullback. All bets off to the buy side trading below the upper .214 of 60.60 Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Tuesday, November 28th Durable Goods 8:30, Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales 10:00, 2-Year Note 1:00 Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES Z6 (S&P500), ZN Z6 (10 Year Note) and QM F7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: The S&P got hammered on Monday as confluence maintained resistance and 60% of Novembers gains were erased by the closing bell. Today it is reasonable to assume that yesterdays selling will continue as long as trading below the loose confluence of the lower .214 and the Pivot with yesterdays low of 1382.75 as my minimum profit target and the November low of 1365.25 as my ultimate target. Durable Goods at 8:30am ET will likely have an impact on today's market.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes fell out of bed at the open but recovered from a flight to safety rally as equities were abandoned from the open to the close. Notes will likely continue to rally and surpass my ultimate profit target of 108 24.5/32 today as long as the 108 15/32 area continues to offer support below which I am no longer interested in the buy side in Notes. Durable Goods at 8:30am ET will likely have an impact on today's market.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil continued to scratch and claw its way inside the Fib Grid on Monday, still trading within the range of last weeks push down. Oil clearly wants to break the Fib Grid high with the old 11/10 close of 61.550 as a minimum profit target. Oil needs to be trading with support above the loose confluence of the upper .214 and the Pivot for the buy side to be favored. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
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Monday, November 27th No Significant Economic Announcements Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES Z6 (S&P500), ZN Z6 (10 Year Note) and QM F7 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: Weakness at the open was bought on Friday only to settle back near the low of the day. With negative momentum on the daily bars it is reasonable to assume that a long overdue pullback is in the works as long as trading below the confluence of the lower .214 and the Pivot with last weeks low of 1401.25 as my minimum profit target. Look for a test and potential support of the old 2006 high at 1395. Do not get too ambitious/focused with shorting as I will be looking to buy any significant pullback with a new 2006 high as my ultimate profit target.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A gap up at the open with a lower close suggests lower prices for Notes today after visiting my ultimate profit target within 5 ticks on Friday. With 5 consecutive closes and no significant economic announcements today it is likely Notes will relax. I am still expecting any pullback to be bought to 108 24.5/32 and as long as trading above the upper .214 of 108 15/32 I will continue to pursue the buy side.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Oil traded inside of Wednesdays range on Friday and Given that negative momentum still exists on the daily bars I will pursue the short side as a multi-day pennant continues to form. Look for a break last weeks low of 57.975 and ultimately the continuous contract low of 57.150. Trading above last weeks high of 60.40 and I will be working the buy side as long as support maintains above the loose confluence of the upper .382 and the Pivot as highlighted above. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings
_____________________________________________________________________ D i s c l a i m e r It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in DATA Morning Call will be profitable or that they will not or cannot result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. DATA Morning Call is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, options or futures and is offered as an educational resource only.
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