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DATA Morning Call
Empowering active trading and investment through proper technical analysis.
DATA Morning Call is entirely focused on E-MINI futures trading and supports 3 trading vehicles to choose from with varying degrees of volatility and risk. By far the least volatile are the 10-year Notes and the most volatile is Crude Oil. By learning how to contain or mitigate risk it is possible to trade higher volatility products that tend to have a higher degree of reward. This can be learned and is the mission of the Direct Access Trading Academy to teach you to be a low risk/high return trader that specializes in one particular product and masters that product before trading any additional product. Click on education to learn more.
A proficient trader with a cash account should be able to average a 1% profit per week or better. Properly margined futures accounts may experience even greater returns. All this with the added safety of trading an index! To learn more join us in the DATA chat room by clicking on real-time chat or call us any time at 941-364-3600.
Trade with Knowledge! -Burr Jennings
* Please read the Disclaimer at the very bottom of this page!
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_____________________________________________________________________ Monday, August 14th No Significant Economic Announcements Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U6 (S&P500), ZN U6 (10 Year Note) and QM U6 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: As suggested in Fridays DATA Morning Call, the loose confluence of the lower .382 (the high of the day) and the Pivot (intraday resistance) offered a shorting opportunity in the S&P. Unfortunately most the the trading community dashed out of town by noon and the S&P posted a relatively narrow range inside day closing where we entered our shorts. Today is of course another day and an opportunity to break last weeks low on our way to my ultimate destination of 1229.00 which is likely an economic announcement or 2 away. Unfortunately we do not have any economic announcements today but Tuesday and Wednesday offer plenty of numbers to crunch and move the markets.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Held down by the Pivot, Notes continued to slip lower on Friday closing quite weak on the day and the week posting an inside week. Notes have relaxed 3/4 of a handle and are likely a buy this week especially if last week or the week before low is broken (106 0.5/32 and 105 25.5/32 respectively). After a break lower look for either of these levels to offer support to buy above with 106 23.0/32 as my ultimate profit target. Today's confluence at the lower .214 and the Pivot (a powerful combination) as highlighted above is an excellent line in the sand to buy against.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A quick break of Thursdays low led to a rally with limited legs on Friday. Today a break below last weeks low of 73.725 or 2 weeks ago 72.850 and I will be looking for any good reason to buy Oil with Wednesdays close of 76.350 as my minimum profit target. With loose confluence at the lower .214 and Pivot as highlighted above we have a good line in the sand to buy against today. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Friday, August 11th Import/Export and Retail Sales 8:30am, Business Inventories 10:00am *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U6 (S&P500), ZN U6 (10 Year Note) and QM U6 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: A gap down at the open was bought against most of the day as a rather tepid rally brought the S&P back to the Pivot. It is likely that the S&P will try to establish positive momentum on the daily bars today and if so it is also likely this strength will be defeated for at least a test if not a break of this weeks low of 1264.75. With loose confluence between today's lower .382 and the Pivot is best that we simply use the Pivot as our line in the sand to short sell against. Keep in mind, that in the big picture we still have negative momentum on the daily and weekly bars and that as of yesterdays close relative strength is still weak in the month of August which is notorious for failed rallies. Due to unpopular demand and a certain "technical" difficulty we will not be taking DATA Morning Call to subscription until the end of August. Trade on Garth!
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A gap up led to a break of this weeks low off the 1:00pm Bond auction to close unch on the day. Once again, I am looking for price action to break last weeks high or low to fade the directional bias. I want to short Notes above last weeks high and buy them below last weeks low. Given the price action of the last 4 days it appears Notes are committed to an inside week. Yuck! Very surprising given FOMC this week. Due to unpopular demand and a certain "technical" difficulty we will not be taking DATA Morning Call to subscription until the end of August. Trade on Garth!
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Crude Oil threw in the towel selling off more than $2 yesterday as once again the talking heads in the media were baffled by a market that did precisely the opposite of what they all seem to suggest. Since the beginning of when I started trading Oil, the info on CNBC and in the media has been 100% wrong 100% of the time. Put down the newspaper, turn off the TV and stick with DATA Morning Call and you will do fine. That said, Oil is now approaching an oversold are having broken last Fridays low yesterday and not far from last weeks low of 72.850 an area that I am very interested in position trading to the buy side. Expect a healthy bounce today in Oil especially if yesterdays low of 73.875 is broken. Yesterdays gap down will fill in the near future at 76.350 and this weeks high at 77.425 should be eclipsed as well. Due to unpopular demand and a certain "technical" difficulty we will not be taking DATA Morning Call to subscription until the end of August. Trade on Garth! Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Thursday, August 10th International Trade and Jobless 8:30am, Natural Gas Inventory 10:30am and 30-Year Bond Auction 1:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U6 (S&P500), ZN U6 (10 Year Note) and QM U6 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: You just don't get market advice better than what DATA Morning Call offered you yesterday backed up by the DATA chat room as precise entry and profit targets all came to fruition in the S&P with strength sold in to for negative momentum on the weekly bars off a gap up open creating an unusual outside day after an outside day. Today I will continue to pursue the short side especially off a positive open with 1266.75 as my minimum profit target and an ultimate target of the 2006 low at 1229.00. Confluence as highlighted above should offer resistance today. Very Important! As of Monday, August 14th DATA Morning Call will only be available FREE by subscription through Sarasota Futures Group 941-365-3600. A purchase option will be available as well for $295.00 per month. The DATA chat room will follow suit and be subscription only a week later.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A dip below Tuesdays low found buyers good for a test of the previous close but no more. With momentum still negative on the daily bars and a new Fib Grid today despite the fact that yesterday was still trading inside of last Fridays range (as was the previous 2 sessions) I will sit out Notes today unless extreme volatility at the open such as a significant gap up or down exists. My #1 trade is to buy weakness below last weeks low or short above last weeks high. Today's confluence as highlighted above is likely to be pivotal today. Very Important! As of Monday, August 14th DATA Morning Call will only be available FREE by subscription through Sarasota Futures Group 941-365-3600. A purchase option will be available as well for $295.00 per month. The DATA chat room will follow suit and be subscription only a week later.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Strength at the open rallied to a double top with Tuesdays high in Crude Oil before breaking Tuesdays low by a tick as Natural Gas continued it's high flying rally back to nearly $8 easily filling the gap back to last Thursdays close. Both Oil and natural gas are looking heavy her and are likely both short candidates. As suggested previously I am not a fan of the short side in either and will be patient for the next buying opportunity. Very Important! As of Monday, August 14th DATA Morning Call will only be available FREE by subscription through Sarasota Futures Group 941-365-3600. A purchase option will be available as well for $295.00 per month. The DATA chat room will follow suit and be subscription only a week later. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, August 9th Wholesale Trade 10:00am, Oil Inventory 10:30am and 10-Year Note Auction 1:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U6 (S&P500), ZN U6 (10 Year Note) and QM U6 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: As suggested in yesterdays DATA Morning Call, the S&P was "damned if they do and damned if they don't" selling off hard from the 2:15pm ET FOMC announcement breaking the low of the week and last Thursdays low where support came in to close at Mondays low. Far from throwing the baby out with the bath water, the S&P is likely to retrace to to the pre-announcment level of approximately 1281.50 where resistance should offer a break of yesterdays low at 1272.00 and a break of last weeks low of 1270.25 creating negative momentum on the weekly bars with an ultimate target of the 2006 low of 1229.00. We have loose confluence at the lower .382 and the Pivot as your line in the sand to short sell against. Above 1281.50 and I am not a fan of pursuing the short side at all.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: A relatively narrow range in Notes yesterday given the FOMC announcement and to my surprise an effective use of the Pivot Points which I had negated due to Mondays very narrow range. None-the-less, yesterdays low was S2 and the high not far from R2 with a close just off the Pivot. Most unexpected. Yesterdays outside day after an inside day that continues to trade inside of Fridays range (unusual) leaves us again with the same Fib Grid today. I like the short side in Notes especially if trading above 106 23/32 or below the confluence of the upper.214 and the Pivot as highlighted above. I am not a fan of the buy side at this time.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: A small gap down at the open was bought to Mondays high where sellers smacked Oil back down below the low of the day on Tuesday. Oil is in that unenviable middle ground of between the last significant support and the high of the year. Again, I am a huge fan of buying Oil off weakness and short selling off new 2006 highs. With Oil right in the middle I will be patient for the next high probability set-up. Natural Gas followed through nicely yesterday from Mondays gap down rallying well above Mondays high and continues to be a buy today as long as trading above yesterdays low of 6.880 Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, August 8th Productivity and Costs 8:30am, FOMC Announcement 2:15pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U6 (S&P500), ZN U6 (10 Year Note) and QM U6 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: As suggested in DATA Morning Call, a struggle in the S&P led to a lame rally at the end of the day with narrow range and negative momentum. Today I expect this same "lame" rally to continue but with greater vigor easily surpassing Fridays close of 1285.50 and at least testing the upper ranges of yesterdays Fib Grid. Work the buy side this morning but be flat (no position) in front of the 2:15pm FOMC announcement. Regardless of the decision on interest rates there should be plenty of volatility after 2:15 with trend developing by 2:45 and a close at or near the high or low of the day. The S&P is likely damned if they do and damned if they don't at the current level. An increase in interest rates will shatter expectations and likely create an immediate and aggressive sell-off. No increase in interest rates will likely spur bullish euphoria well above Fridays high at which point pro's (that know the reason that interest rates are no longer rising is because the economy is slowing) will sell their long positions they have been accumulating since mid-July. Be in the DATA chat room for the latest real-time analysis.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
10 Year Note: Notes posted a tight inside day on Monday that leave us with very narrow range on the Pivot Points today that outside of the confluence of the upper .214 and the Pivot will otherwise be worthless given the expected volatility off the 2:15pm ET FOMC announcement. Notes have come a long way from last months low and these levels have plenty to lose should there be an increase in interest rates and likely little to gain should there be no increase. Should no increase be the net result, expect Notes to break last weeks high of 106 23/32 at a minimum and euphoria much beyond that to be sold in to if not today then over the next few days. Notes will likely have a bullish bias this morning as long as trading above the confluence highlighted above. It is not a bad idea to be flat (no position) going in to the announcement. Be in the DATA chat room for the latest real time analysis.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from YESTERDAYS market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S market
Crude Oil: Right from the open on Monday Oil rallied hard to break well above last weeks high peaking $2.50 above Fridays close. A bit of an overreaction to the Alaskan pipeline debacle given the current levels but short sellers definitely taking a spanking bidding on every pullback. Yesterdays gap is likely to fill in the near future especially if the prognosis in Alaska takes a turn for the better. I am not a fan of chasing price here and will wait patiently for Oil to relax to a level that is attractive for buying. Natural Gas slipped back in to the 6's yesterday on a gap down posting negative momentum on the weekly bars suggesting that as long as trading above yesterdays open of 6.845 - Natty is a buy. Trade with Knowledge! Burr Jennings _____________________________________________________________________
Monday, August 7th Day Before FOMC, 3-Year Note Auction 1:00pm ET Today *Check this weeks economic calendar by clicking on: www.econoday.com eSignal Futures Symbols: ES U6 (S&P500), ZN U6 (10 Year Note) and QM U6 (Crude Oil)
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session
S&P 500: As suggested in DATA Morning Call, a gap up in the S&P was sold against the open, well above Thursdays high, creating a new high for the week and perhaps the month depending on the outcome of Tuesdays FOMC meeting. Therein lies the rub. The S&P is a short here but in front of such a high expectation FOMC announcement traders are likely to be buying this afternoon and thru tomorrows lunch hour. We have very loose confluence and a close at 1285.50 to take in to consideration as our line in the sand. The Pivot is also Fridays 210 minute afternoon high above which I will be working the buy side especially in the afternoon. Expect a struggle that favors the bulls.
*Chart above represents the Fib Grid and Pivot (short red line) from yesterdays market The Fib Grid and Pivot Points below represent TODAY'S session 108 145/320 = 108 14.5/32 or 108 29/64 depending on your charting software
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